Friday, October 26, 2012

Romney Lies And So Do Polling Averages

 


I am so tired of watching Gallup, Rasmussen, and many other conservative polling entities control the polling averages by using large polling leads for Romney. I was thinking what if they were not listed in the average? I created my own averages without the very conservative numbers.

I created my own averages believing in my heart these outliers do not belong in the average if they are bias for one side. Taking from Huffpost Politics, I have come up with a very different outcome I use to stop sweating about the possibility of Romney becoming our next president.

Now, when I look at the national averages, I take out Rasmussen's polls and Gallup's outliers, instead of getting a created number, I get 47% to 47%. When I do the same for Florida, I get 48% for Obama and 47% for Romney. I don't feel bad about doing this. I don't think life will be that much different without them.

I say this concerning polls also because I was on the "Headline Poll" site and discovered a strong bias in how they presented their numbers. For example, they left a PPP poll that had Obama up in Ohio by 3 points out the day it was released. They put it out the next day, but it was not released as new. In effect, it went unnoticed. I confronted them with the following post:

"Why was this Florida poll not included in yesterday's polling list? I hope this is not just one of those conservative sites trying to give the impression they are objective, but in actuality, they are not. This poll would of made many Democrats happy, and many conservatives nervous. What is really going on?" Since then, this site has removed the poll. Why? Unless you can give me a good reason for this bias act, this will be the last time I use this site. I have noticed a few other things this site does that favor Mitt Romney. One is the way you list Obama's leads. You make sure they are spaced apart. The same is not done for Romney."
What did they do? They removed the poll altogether. So when you see a polling average being manipulated by one or two conservative outliers, don't panic; just recalibrate the poll without the bias pollster. Another very important factor concerning national polls is: for the very dynamics I am trying to avoid, national polls have become not good sources of accurate information.


Joseph

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